Blogs

Picks for January 5th

Editor — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 06:00:00 +0000

This model was recommended for a buy on January 5th, and as a sell on January 12th.
Symbol	Buy Price	Sell Price	Transaction Gain/Loss
S&P 500	$1,281.06	$1,295.50	1.13%
DRN	$51.66	$52.18	1.01%
EWP	$29.15	$29.71	1.92%
TNA	$46.95	$50.40	7.35%
UNG	$6.42	$5.90	-8.10%
XLU	$35.21	$34.91	-0.85%
		Avg. Gain	0.26%
Alternate Pick to UNG
PALL	$63.16	$62.81	-0.55%

Picks for December 29th

Editor — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 06:00:00 +0000

This model was recommended for a buy on December 29th, and as a sell on December 30th.
Symbol	Buy Price	Sell Price	Transaction Gain/Loss
S&P 500	$1,263.02	$1,257.60	-0.43%
AGQ	$42.19	$41.65	-1.28%
DGP	$46.34	$47.61	2.74%
HAO	$19.08	$19.30	1.15%
REM	$12.71	$12.66	-0.39%
RSX	$26.24	$26.65	1.56%
		Avg. Gain	0.76%

Picks for December 22nd

Editor — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 06:00:00 +0000

This model was recommended for a buy on December 22nd, and as a sell on December 29th.

Symbol	Buy Price	Sell Price	Transaction Gain/Loss
S&P 500	$1,254.00	$1,263.02	0.72%
EWP	$30.20	$30.16	-0.13%
EWX	$37.89	$37.63	-0.69%
IGV	$54.14	$54.29	0.28%
IXP	$55.02	$55.45	0.78%
TMF	$68.21	$70.90	3.94%
		Avg. Gain	0.84%

Picks for December 15th

Editor — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 06:00:00 +0000

Model recommended as a buy on December 15th, and as a sell on December 22nd.

	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss
AGQ	$46.68	$46.92	0.5%
DGP	$47.86	$50.44	5.4%
DIG	$39.45	$43.99	11.5%
FAS	$58.13	$65.75	13.1%
LBJ	$67.60	$74.52	10.2%
		Average	8.2%

Picks for December 1st

Editor — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 06:00:00 +0000

Model bought on December 1st, sold on December 8th.

	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss
AGQ	$60.06	$55.50	-7.6%
CYB	$25.62	$25.59	-0.1%
TMF	$64.88	$68.43	5.5%
UCO	$42.37	$40.44	-4.6%
UUP	$22.05	$22.19	0.6%
		Average	-1.2%

Picks for November 17th

Editor — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 06:00:00 +0000

This model was bought on November 17th, sold on December 1st.

	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss
CORN	$40.49	$39.38	-2.7%
DRN	$45.87	$45.97	0.2%
FAS	$57.60	$60.89	5.7%
REMX	$16.92	$17.49	3.4%
XPP	$46.61	$50.00	7.3%
		Average	2.8%

Hopeful

Editor — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 06:00:00 +0000

On Friday the Dow rallied 260 points as investors breathed a big sigh of relief that Greece and Italy have taken positive steps toward fiscal responsibility. Berlusconi resigned over the weekend and Mario Monti agreed to form a transitional government in Italy. This is like the relief parents feel when their kid enters rehab. It is a good first step. but the hard part, sobriety, lies ahead.

So Not Funny

Editor — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 06:00:00 +0000

The Italian Prime Minister is departing the political stage, as expected, but the comedic leader will not leave his audience laughing.

News hit mid-day on Tuesday that Prime Minister Berlusconi agreed to resign after the new austerity budget is passed, which boosted equity markets in Europe and the U.S. The Dow closed up 101 points and the S&P advanced more than 1% as financials breathed a sign of relief. That's the good news.

Overnight, however, the European bond market sent a glaring vote of no-confidence when the yield on benchmark 10-year Italian government bonds soared to 7.41%.

The Italian Prime Minister is departing the political stage, as expected, but the comedic leader will not leave his audience laughing.

Weekend Update

Editor — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 05:00:00 +0000

Last week was a net loser for the equity market, but the major indices are busy consolidating their recent gains from a spectacular 4-week rally. The S&P was down 2.5% through Friday and the Dollar Index was up the same amount. Financials and retailers are being sold, but energy, materials and tech are stable.

Bounding Rebound?

Editor — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 05:00:00 +0000

You can't keep a good market down, especially during November and December.

As expected yesterday (November 2), the market quickly found a way to feel better about the possibility of Euro contagion: focus on the Fed. In his remarks after the FOMC meeting, the Fed chairman admitted that economic growth is frustratingly slow and “very unsatisfactory.” The Fed downgraded its economic outlook for the next two years and upped its unemployment forecast. In other words, the Fed finally admitted the reality of the New Normal.

You can't keep a good market down, especially during November and December.

Test...Testing

Editor — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Friday (October 28) the major indices digested last week's buying panic and today we should get another minor pullback and retest of recent intraday lows.

Mind the Gap

Editor — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Tuesday (October 25) the major indices made an attempt to test/fill Friday's up-gap. We discussed the likelihood of this test in SpearChat on Monday. The market passed the test.

Chop Chop

Editor — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Wednesday (October 19th) the Dow gave back 72 points in choppy trade. We expect another day of chop and then some anticipatory selling on Friday ahead of the EU summit on Sunday

Thursday the 13th

Editor — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Wednesday (October 12) the Dow rallied another 102 points. The market looks tired after rallying 13% in seven sessions, so we expect at least a few down days.

Q3 Terminus

Editor — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Thursday (September 29) the market recouped much of Wednesday's decline and may have marked the end of the window-dressing when it rallied 143 points on better than expected economic news.

The Labor Department reported that first- time unemployment claims fell 37,000, to 391,000 last week.

The Commerce Department also raised its estimate of the second quarter's gross domestic product to 1.3%. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand by 1.8% in Q3 and 2.2% in Q4.

Despite the topline gain, under the surface yesterday the action was mixed, with 41 names in the S&P 500 down more than 2%. A number of previously untouchable market leaders succumbed to profit taking, including Apple, Amazon, Green Mountain Coffee, Priceline and Wynn Resorts.

To some degree we expect this at the end of the third quarter, as this is the time that mutual funds adjust portfolio positions before the end of their fiscal year.

On Thursday (September 29) the market recouped much of Wednesday's decline and may have marked the end of the window-dressing when it rallied 143 points on better than expected economic news.

The Labor Department reported that first- time unemployment claims fell 37,000, to 391,000 last week.

The Commerce Department also raised its estimate of the second quarter's gross domestic product to 1.3%. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand by 1.8% in Q3 and 2.2% in Q4.

Freaky Friday?

Editor — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 05:00:00 +0000

The Dow closed up another 186 points on Thursday (September 15). Index futures are down only slightly as we go to publish. Will this be another Freaky Friday? Maybe not.

On Thursday the U.S. indices advanced almost 2% on news that the ECB, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank are coordinating to supply dollar liquidity to European banks through the end of the year. The backstopping by the five central banks is not unprecedented; it happened in May of 2010, as well, at the height of the Euro crisis. In 2008 the Fed did the heavy lifting ($600 billion worth) all by itself.

This buys some time while parliaments in Europe debate the complex issue of greater financial unity among the 17 Eurozone members.

The Dow closed up another 186 points on Thursday (September 15). Index futures are down only slightly as we go to publish. Will this be another Freaky Friday? Maybe not.

Silver's Silver Lining

Editor — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Monday (August 22) the market gapped up but sold off in the afternoon. The tepid bounce probably encouraged short sellers, but index futures are set to open higher once again.

U.S. markets started the week encouraged by overnight strength in European bourses. The opening strength faded, however, as the day wore on and the S&P 500 closed flat. Blame it on the financials, which fell 1.2% yesterday and closed at a new 2-year low.

Data from the Fed on the Chicago region was largely unchanged from last month. The economy there is flat, but not contracting. The energy sector as a whole was down 0.8% and closed near a 2-year low.

Where's the silver lining? Silver.

While gold itself has been rallying and is now very overbought, both silver and the miners have been basing. Yesterday they began to break out.

Silver's Silver Lining

On Monday (August 22) the market gapped up but sold off in the afternoon. The tepid bounce probably encouraged short sellers, but index futures are set to open higher once again. That said, if the market fails here then look for a test of 1040 in the S&P 500.

How to Play It: Amazon

Editor — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 14:02:04 +0000

Gregory Spear was asked his opinion on the surge in Amazon's stock price on Wednesday by Reuters:

On the contrarian end, ETF investor Gregory Spear sees a good potential to gain from buying Amazon's stock "on the dips" and accumulating slowly. Spear is looking for the stock to fall to $219 before buying.

"I wouldn't buy after a strong earnings announcement," Spear said. "That's why it's up today, and we don't know how long it will last. If the run-of-the-mill speculation is that it's going to try to go straight up, you can pretty much bet that it won't."

The last time Amazon announced earnings results in late April, the stock rose 8.5 percent the following day, but lost its upward momentum in less than two weeks, gradually sliding back down for the rest of the month.

You can read the entire article here. Or you can get a Free Trial subscription to Spear's ETF Analyst by clicking here.

Gregory Spear was asked his opinion on the surge in Amazon's stock price on Wednesday by Reuters:

Reuters asks about European ETFs

Editor — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 05:00:00 +0000

On Friday, Spear Publications recieved a call from Reuters' Ashley Lau, asking for Gregory Spear's take on how events in Europe would impact ETFs and how to play it. Here's an excerpt:

Spear, editor of Spear's ETF Analyst in Hartford, Connecticut, said he made 5.0 percent after buying the iShares Italy ETF last week and selling it on Thursday after news of the deal broke.

"When we bought it, it was one of the worst performers in the market," Spear said. "Because the drop had been so sharp, when knew that European leaders would have to make a move. The market dictated that they would have to do something to quell the trajectory."

Check out the whole article here, or better yet subscribe to Spear's ETF Analyst to always know what Gregory thinks.

On Friday, Spear Publications recieved a call from Reuters' Ashley Lau, asking for his take on how events in Europe would impact ETFs and how to play it. Here's an excerpt:

Spear, editor of Spear's ETF Analyst in Hartford, Connecticut, said he made 5.0 percent after buying the iShares Italy ETF last week and selling it on Thursday after news of the deal broke.

To Weigh or Not to Weigh?

Editor — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 05:00:00 +0000

Main Image:

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Amidst the incredible rise in popularity of exchange traded funds ETFs over the last decade, now numbering more than 1200, one is faced with an embarrassment of riches. One of the more vexing challenges is choosing between the different methods used for building these instruments: market capitalization-weighted indexes or equal-weighted funds.

Best Way to Leverage the Current Rally

Editor — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 15:14:42 +0000

In Monday night's chat session (www.spearreportpro.com/chat) Gregory went to great lengths to point out that the best way to leverage the rally that he expected was in FAS, the triple-leverage financial ETF. The current bullishness is about the finances of Europe, and while Gregory does not expect this bullishness to last more than a few weeks at most, U.S. banks should pop on the news, and FAS gives you triple leverage on that move without the risk or cost of margin! As of this writing, 11 AM on Tuesday, FAS is up 2.5% for the day!

Buy the Laggards

Editor — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 20:32:23 +0000

It looks like our models are going to have a winning week. Three of the buys for the Short Term Model from Thursday morning are up nicely, AGQ at 2.7%, TNA at 3.2% and LBJ at 1.6%. The other two are down, and great buys right now.

Five Kinds of AWESOME!

Editor — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 14:49:24 +0000

On Monday at 3:25 pm we sent a sell notice to all ETF subscribers, at that moment the Short-Term Model Portfolio was up 4.8%.

At the Market close our Short-Term Model Portfolio was up 5% since the close last Thursday which is Five Kinds of AWESOME!

Enjoy your profits and the summer sun!

Spear’s Weekly Chat with The Pros...

Editor — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 05:00:00 +0000

... is all about the side observations that later prove to be highly prophetic.

Elliot’s Take: What stood out for me this week was when we looked at the market chart and saw the market breaking out, I commented that the test will be the next day, since Wednesdays are often reversal days. The market indeed tested and failed big time on Wednesday.

Ken’s Comment: We expect that a weak dollar and soft real estate pricing will continue to pressure interest rates (10 and 20-yr Treasuries). In contrast to speculative small caps, we recommend large-cap leaders such as Apple. We have a $400 price target for AAPL.

An Observation from Gregory

Editor — Tue, 17 May 2011 05:00:00 +0000

The S&P was down only slightly last week, for a two week loss that is well within its recent channel. Commodities, meanwhile, continued to make news with their corrections. A subscriber pointed out that someone at Reuters wrote this weekend that there will probably be significantly more to the current commodity slide. My response was, What do you know about this analyst’s track record in predicting commodity prices.” Answer; “Nothing.” “Then ignore the article,” I said, “because there are certainly other analysts who would disagree and you have no reason to have confidence in this one, without knowing what his or her track record is on commodities.”