Spear's ETF Analyst

Spear's ETF Analyst covers the whole universe of over 1,000 active Exchange Traded Funds and other similar instruments. The analysis and portfolio management is clear enough for beginners, and accurate enough for professionals. 
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Why Trade ETFs?
There is a massive shift in equity trading away from individual stocks and mutual funds and into ETFs. At the open of 2011, ETFs represented 29% of all U.S. equity trading volume. Why are investors flocking to ETFs?
ETFs are like mutual funds but with far lower fees and expenses, and instead of trading only once per day at the close of the market like mutual funds, ETFs trade all day long, just like stocks. ETFs can be managed or unmanaged, but most are unmanaged to keep costs down and provide full transparency.
They typically seek to deliver the same return as an index or other fixed basket of stocks representing a certain market or niche. Whether you want to invest in the the entire S&P 500, the top ten companies in Singapore, a basket of the leading companies in Latin America, or biotech or coal mining stocks in the U.S., there is an ETF, or often multiple ETFs, to accomplish this with next-to-no fees and as easily as buying any U.S.-traded stock.
Also, there are leveraged versions of many ETFs, which seek daily performance that is double or triple the performance of the basket they are tracking, effectively providing the same advantages as margin, but without any margin cost, and without the primary risk associated with the use of margin, the risk of losing more than the capital invested. Options can also be purchased on many ETFs. Because these are effectively options on whole markets or baskets of stocks instead of a single stock, this often means less risk than buying options on individual stocks.
All these advantages are why stock and mutual fund investors have been shifting to ETFs for the last several years. The trouble is, many ETFs are inappropriately constructed or under-capitalized and even if properly formed and well-capitalized, an investor needs to get the timing right to make profitable trades.

Each weekly edition of Spear's ETF Analyst provides:

  1. Concise profiles of the funds that our editors find particularly interesting in the current market.
  2. A Short-Term Model Portfolio for aggressive investors. This Model identifies the five funds we believe are most likely to move up in the next week. Performance of this model has been astounding - see the performance details here and equity graph here.
  3. An Intermediate-Term Model containing up to 20 ETFs for less aggressive investors. This model has handily outperformed the general market with only occasional trading.
  4. A weekly, downloadable Excel table containing all actively traded funds with dozens of fields showing the absolute and relative performance history of each fund for periods from one day to one year, The table is all set up for sorting and filtering and contains simple instructions for using these features. No Excel experience is necessary. This is a powerful tool used by many professionals to identify unique opportunities using price-performance patterns.
Over the last 15 years, Spear’s specialized financial information products have earned a reputation for an uncanny ability to identify trends and investment opportunities in any given market. In Spear's ETF Analyst, we leverage our proven ability to analyze international, sector and industry developments to guide investors to profitable trading strategies for ETFs. As in all Spear publications, all advice is entirely independent.*
* Neither the publisher nor the editors of any Spear publication have any financial or personal relationship of any kind with any of the companies or funds we review. Officers and employees of our companies are subject to strict rules and procedures to prevent conflicts of interest with our readers.

Latest Articles

02.24.12
From the February 23rd Issue

London Financial Times Gets It Right, While Morgan Stanley Shows Us the Quality of Work that Led to the Financial Crisis

On December 1, we warned that the Greek crisis was far from over, even as most pundits claimed then that the worst was over. We warned that the German focus on austerity measures to be taken by eurozone economies was exactly the wrong way to fix those economies, that they needed stimulus instead, and that the German focus on austerity might represent an opportunist effort to stagnate those economies and leave Germany in a hegemonic position.

Click here to read more...

01.27.12
Sky Rocketing!

From its most recent major swing low in November, the S&P 500 has had a nine-week rally, including the last four weeks in a row. It is time for a pullback, but the market remains stubbornly bullish. We are also concerned that the last several weeks have seen flat or decreasing volume, which is bearish when prices are moving up.

In the last eight weeks the Intermediate Model has taken off like a rocket! 

One week performance +3.90%

Four week performance +28.74%

Nine week performance +38.13%

On average the model is down about 40 from the 52-week high, making this an excellent time to buy regardless of the recent gains.  And in case you’re wondering the model is up an average of 68% from the 52 week low. 

This is looking like a good time to keep an eye open for dips and making buys when they arrive!

01.14.12
Mild Good News

There are signs of stabilization in Europe this week, as highly successful debt auctions in Italy and Spain reassured investors and European Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank has averted a serious credit shortage and there are signs the economy is stabilizing. The European Central Bank continued buying an undisclosed amount of bonds to prop up the market. The negative side to all this is that in the face of even mild good news, policy makers may resist cutting interest rates further for now, and as we’ve seen over and over in the U.S., cutting rates is the best reassurance to investors of an active government that is willing to go to great lengths to avoid recession. The Bank of England missed one of these opportunities today when it kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5%.  

01.07.12
Talking 'bout the Model

Last week’s Short-Term Model picks reflected a bet on silver (AGQ), global blue chips (DGT), China (HAO), Real Estate (REM) and Russia (RSX).  They were all down sharply as we bought them, in accordance with our contrarian model.  I said in that issue that it was quite difficult for me to make the selections, but all that effort paid off. Every one of these picks was up handsomely for the week.

Taking prices from the Thursday close, which we always use for tracking the performance of the picks we send out during the day on Thursday, the Model was up over 2% by late morning the very next day, Friday! Because that is a great gain for a one-week hold, we sent out a sell recommendation. But there was a lot more where that came from.  By the close on Tuesday, the next trading day after the holiday, the model was up just over 6% for the week, so if you missed the sell Friday morning, you were one happy pig the next day!

12.31.11
Adieu Armageddon

 

Last week we recommended buying the dips in Europe and Emerging Markets after the ECB announced its $641 billion Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO). The ECB is lending a helping hand this holiday season to more than 500 European banks, a necessary intervention given the lack of institutional interest in subsidizing bank bonds.

(Click on the title, above, to continue reading)

12.24.11
Trust the Model

 

Over the last two weeks we made a tactical decision to step aside and not invest in the Short-Term Model Portfolio. In our view the news-driven environment did not give us much of an 'edge.' We were wrong.

Those subscribers who followed our "unofficial" recommendations did quite well over the past two weeks: first, a 15% gain in the Direxion 3X Financial Bear ETF (FAZ) and then an average gain of 8.15% at Thursday's close in our 5 picks from last week. Apparently, the lesson is "Trust the model, Luke!" 

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Updates

01.05.12
Picks for January 5th

 

This model was recommended for a buy on January 5th, and as a sell on January 12th.
Symbol Buy Price Sell Price Transaction Gain/Loss
S&P 500 $1,281.06 $1,295.50 1.13%
DRN $51.66 $52.18 1.01%
EWP $29.15 $29.71 1.92%
TNA $46.95 $50.40 7.35%
UNG $6.42 $5.90 -8.10%
XLU $35.21 $34.91 -0.85%
    Avg. Gain 0.26%
Alternate Pick to UNG    
PALL $63.16 $62.81 -0.55%
12.30.11
Picks for December 29th

 

This model was recommended for a buy on December 29th, and as a sell on December 30th.
Symbol Buy Price Sell Price Transaction Gain/Loss
S&P 500 $1,263.02 $1,257.60 -0.43%
AGQ $42.19 $41.65 -1.28%
DGP $46.34 $47.61 2.74%
HAO $19.08 $19.30 1.15%
REM $12.71 $12.66 -0.39%
RSX $26.24 $26.65 1.56%
    Avg. Gain 0.76%

 

12.22.11
Picks for December 22nd

 

 This model was recommended for a buy on December 22nd, and as a sell on December 29th.

Symbol Buy Price Sell Price Transaction Gain/Loss
S&P 500 $1,254.00 $1,263.02 0.72%
EWP $30.20 $30.16 -0.13%
EWX $37.89 $37.63 -0.69%
IGV $54.14 $54.29 0.28%
IXP $55.02 $55.45 0.78%
TMF $68.21 $70.90 3.94%
    Avg. Gain 0.84%
12.15.11
Picks for December 15th

 

Model recommended as a buy on December 15th, and as a sell on December 22nd.

 

  Buy Sell Gain/Loss
AGQ $46.68 $46.92 0.5%
DGP $47.86 $50.44 5.4%
DIG $39.45 $43.99 11.5%
FAS $58.13 $65.75 13.1%
LBJ $67.60 $74.52 10.2%
    Average 8.2%

 

12.08.11
Picks for December 1st

Model bought on December 1st, sold on December 8th. 

 

 

Buy

Sell

Gain/Loss

AGQ

$60.06

$55.50

-7.6%

CYB

$25.62

$25.59

-0.1%

TMF

$64.88

$68.43

5.5%

UCO

$42.37

$40.44

-4.6%

UUP

$22.05

$22.19

0.6%
   

Average

-1.2%

 

11.17.11
Picks for November 17th

 

This model was bought on November 17th, sold on December 1st.

 

Buy

Sell

Gain/Loss

CORN

$40.49

$39.38

-2.7%

DRN

$45.87

$45.97

0.2%

FAS

$57.60

$60.89

5.7%

REMX

$16.92

$17.49

3.4%

XPP

$46.61

$50.00

7.3%
   

Average

2.8%

 

11.13.11
Hopeful

On Friday the Dow rallied 260 points as investors breathed a big sigh of relief that Greece and Italy have taken positive steps toward fiscal responsibility. Berlusconi resigned over the weekend and Mario Monti agreed to form a transitional government in Italy. This is like the relief parents feel when their kid enters rehab. It is a good first step. but the hard part, sobriety, lies ahead.

11.09.11
So Not Funny

The Italian Prime Minister is departing the political stage, as expected, but the comedic leader will not leave his audience laughing.

News hit mid-day on Tuesday that Prime Minister Berlusconi agreed to resign after the new austerity budget is passed, which boosted equity markets in Europe and the U.S. The Dow closed up 101 points and the S&P advanced more than 1% as financials breathed a sign of relief. That's the good news.

Overnight, however, the European bond market sent a glaring vote of no-confidence when the yield on benchmark 10-year Italian government bonds soared to 7.41%.

11.06.11
Weekend Update

Last week was a net loser for the equity market, but the major indices are busy consolidating their recent gains from a spectacular 4-week rally. The S&P was down 2.5% through Friday and the Dollar Index was up the same amount. Financials and retailers are being sold, but energy, materials and tech are stable.

11.03.11
Bounding Rebound?

You can't keep a good market down, especially during November and December.

As expected yesterday (November 2), the market quickly found a way to feel better about the possibility of Euro contagion: focus on the Fed. In his remarks after the FOMC meeting, the Fed chairman admitted that economic growth is frustratingly slow and “very unsatisfactory.” The Fed downgraded its economic outlook for the next two years and upped its unemployment forecast. In other words, the Fed finally admitted the reality of the New Normal.

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